Wimbledon Preview & Analysis

July 8, 2012

Let me know what you think in the comments – thanks!

  • Ziabear

    Thanks Will, appreciate your input

  • Mike10spro

    I like your take, but I hope Murray wins. Not only would it be great to see a Brit win, but it would also be nice to see someone new win besides the big 3. Keep up the good work.

  • Barb

    I think you’ve pointed out several key points. I’ll be watching the match with the diagram on my heads-up mental display!

  • Jdrake55

    Will, I think you are missing an important component to finding Fed’s weakness. In the semi match he won less than 50% of his points at the net. Sure, he hit a winner once with an overhead, but otherwise he is vulnerable. Andy did well with net points against Tsonga. If he can pull Fed to the net, he may be able to tip the balance in his favor. 

  • http://www.facebook.com/licoaldo Luiz Armando

    Great gameplan for Murray to try out, except that Murray almost never plays offensive tennis like that. He rarely finishes off a point on the net, and also keeps himself behind the baseline all the time…Federer will steamroll over Murray really.

  • Breathe67

    Thanks for the analysis, we’ll see what happens. I wonder if the grass court will help fed with those backhand rallies vs Murray, like it did with Djokovic.

  • Jeff

    Just one more point. If Federer could serve well, he will dominate the match. I saw Federer took advantage of the server to save the key point which I noted in his match a couple of years ago.

  • Hanlontim

    I agree wholeheartedly. I believe that the moment may be bigger than Murray, but Federer always seems to be bigger than the moment.

    I am having a hard time choosing who I want to win. I am a huge Federer fan, however if Murray was to win I believe that would be a vey neat story.

  • Tj Reitz

    Excellent assessment!

  • http://www.facebook.com/licoaldo Luiz Armando

    If Murray pulls Fed to the net, he’ll regret it. The thing is Federer sometimes goes to the net as a way to put pressure on the opponent even if it’s not the highest percentage play. Fed always goes for the low percentage risky shot: he has always a high number of unforced errors, but it doesn’t mean he’s got weak groundstrokes, for instance. Losing too many points on the net does not necessarily mean he’s got bad net play – whoever watched him playing doubles certainly knows that’s not true…

  • Joaoluiz

    Thanks a lot, pretty good observation about the backhand running.. the problem for murray is that in the grass season federers backhand is doing henry fine..

  • Dwang08

    Honestly, I don’t think Federer has been doing the backhand topspin/slice combination recently.  You see it sometimes, but he doesn’t really use it as a strategy anymore (assuming that he knows he using it that way).  What I’m mostly concerned about is Federer’s unforced error rate in recent matches.  It isn’t just against Djokovic.  I feel as if Fed doesn’t focus on his forehand shots as much anymore.  Moreover, he seems to be hitting an inside out forehand to the cross court (opponent’s backhand) when he has perfect opportunities to just go down the line and hit a winner.  Have you noticed that?  It kind of frustrates me.

    Anyways, I hope that Federer wins this match tomorrow.  It’s been too long since he’s won a GS.  However, I’m glad Murray is his opponent because in the event that Roger loses, I did want Andy to be my second choice.  His first Grand Slam would really man a lot…even to non Andy fans.   I hope Federer doesn’t let that mindset affect his game though.  Thanks for the video, Will!

  • Jhoony1024

    I guess we all know Murray is going to try to send every ball to Fed’s backhand. It’s critical that Fed stays consistant with his backhand and doesn’t give Murray short balls. It’s also important Murray to give him a good angle shots so Fed won’t hit inside out forehands. This is just my opinion!

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/53VRP2ECIW2DGLYYPCG5Z6AYHQ robert a

    I think you are right about the outcome, but I don’t have to say so on a published video!
    Probably in the end it will come down to stroke-by-stroke execution as points are constructed. Murray has the necessary level of skills across the board to compete with Federer and the winner today will execute their plan more effectively. And that is why I agree with your prediction.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/53VRP2ECIW2DGLYYPCG5Z6AYHQ robert a

    I think you are right about the outcome, but I don’t have to say so on a published video!
    Probably in the end it will come down to stroke-by-stroke execution as points are constructed. Murray has the necessary level of skills across the board to compete with Federer and the winner today will execute their plan more effectively. And that is why I agree with your prediction.

  • Josh Weinstein

    i agree fed in 3 though

  • http://www.fuzzyyellowballs.com/ Will Hamilton

    Thanks for the comment.  I think it’s going to be tough for Andy to pull Roger in on his own terms.  Tough to do in general and that tactic isn’t really part of Andy’s game.

    You’re right that Roger has been a bit iffy at net – McEnroe spoke at length about that during the semis.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/2XY3GW7LTR6BLQIZHUHJXTG2YY Herman

    Well then … “”D”" Day is tomorrow……I would like Murray win,  Wimbledon tournement Championship …..I would like Murray win ….he deserve it!!!!……bu,I see much more  greater posibilities on Roger Federer …..he is been there in five Times  finals…….. so the excitment  and butterflies for sure will affect Murray………….what can save him is just …only a  powerfull mind and a Superb Game 

  • Barry

    I’ve noticed that Federer has been defending the backhand under pressure better than the forehand side in his later years. Get him to a running backhand, its coming back over with slice and can be deep. Get him running to his forehand side, he’s trying to hit too good a shot and he misses. (This is very pronounced with Nadal). Murray should look to open up both sides. That’s the best Andy can do. In this match-up, even with Murray at his best, its Fed’s to lose. His losses to Murray have all come from too many mistakes and impatience. Murray can’t beat him at his best.

  • Skater

    If Murray can draw Federer into the net with shallow low slices and drop shots, that prevent Federer from making a strong approach shot,
    Murray should be able to put pressure on Federer with topspin lobs and dipping topspin ground strokes that force an error or weak volley. If Murray can get Federer to move forward and back as well as side to side he might put Roger off balance enough gain an advantage in the longer points. Murray has beaten Federer before – he can do it again.

  • Teosso

    Federer going to win in straight sets….Murray chokes under pressure as long as fed is healthy Murraymurrays best hope is a tiebreak

  • Jlee94111

    couldnt you have changed the word Murray to Djokovic two days ago
    really same mat hup

  • Jat32

    Not a bad assessment, two keys for Murray are to serve well enough to stay with Federer and keep unforced errors down while keeping pressure on Fed…

    Fairly unlikely he can do either…

  • Jat32

    Not a bad assessment, two keys for Murray are to serve well enough to stay with Federer and keep unforced errors down while keeping pressure on Fed…

    Fairly unlikely he can do either…

  • Volley

    Hey Will, why don’t you load Murray that hirt you are wearing?  it would put anyone of their game,

  • http://twitter.com/KJOttawa Kyle Johansen

    Murray cannot do what he did in Dubai – try to attack Fed’s BH and miss.  I hate to say this, but the match rides on Roger’s BH.  When it is solid, he wins.  In Dubai and at the AO final between them, Andy tried to get to the Fed BH even when it was a bad choice to do so.  Roger ran around his forehand and pummeled the ball, immediately putting Andy on the defensive.  The defensive is not where Andy wants to be.

    And why are some of you talking about Fed’s UE count?  It has been extremely low, especially in comparison to the number of errors he made at Roland Garros, where he never found his range.

  • Colin Chung

    Good take on the match. Murray to me is the most gifted player on tour but mentally he hasn’t improved much. I still see him gets frustrated easily. That’ll cost him again tomorrow.

  • Rich

    Fed in three End of story…

  • Kitkoepp

    Thanks for the comments. Good job!.  I think Murray has learned so much from Lendle about controllin the mental game. I used to hate watching Murray because I hated watching him play out all his aches and pains. Every time he got into trouble we had witness his ”oh this hurts… oh that hurts” moments.  We never knew if he was faking it or not… and most of us felt he was faking it!!  Now he isn’t doing that. Big difference!!  I will enjoy watching the match. I might even enjoy it if Murray wins! but I think Federer will beat him. The Fed has better emotional control.

  • Aboshca

    Lendl never stands and claps when Murray wins.  He sits, turns in his seat, and leaves the stadium.  That to me is not a coach with positive backing.
      I like the comments on the video.  Murray will have to be steady and strong and mentally hang in longer than Fed head.

  • Suncag

    Good analysis but I think you are selling fed’s backhand short. We know Murray can beat fed. He has done it several times – but can he do it at a grand slam final? He has been tested more than fed at this Wimbledon. Djokovic was flat in his semi against fed. I think this is the one when Murray will pull it off and make history.

  • Atadam

    I partially agree.

    That said, Novak was a no-show in the semis. Not sure this is 2007 Fed.

    Andy needs to be pumped from the first point. The worst would be for him to sulk around and then wake up down two sets.

    Anyway, Murray in 4. People are being too simplistic about this match.

  • GEORGE

    I’M A BIG FAN OF FEDERER AND I KNOW THAT HE WILL GON A WIN.

  • GEORGE

    I’M A BIG FAN OF FEDERER AND I KNOW THAT HE WILL GON A WIN.

  • Gian

    Definitely agree, Feds in 4 .

  • Gjpollock

    I do agree with most of what you said.  However, this match is Federer’s to lose.  Murray will have to do something he has never done and that is win a 3 set match against Fed.  Both players have shown that they can adapt to opponents strategy.  Murray will have to move Fed around and play a lot of angles as he did with Tsonga.  Fed will use the whole court and a variety of shots, slices and drop shots.  The Fed serve is on fire.  Murray has the weight of making the finals off of his shoulders, so in his mind he already has a victory of sorts. The odds makers have this match very tight.  It is really a match of Number 1 vs. 4.  So if Murray wins the win should be magnified even more, but that WILL NOT HAPPEN.  For Roger to win, and become number 1 again he will have to dig deep, stay and play his game and remember that he truely is the GOAT!  GO Federer GO

  • Don McD

    Murray has to play aggressive to best djokovich and Nadal and many other top players; I am not convinced he has to be aggressive to beat Roger. I think he will be aggressive and he just may win that way, but I am not sure it is the smart play. But your first sentence hit the nail on the head. This match is going to be all about emotions, not strategy. If Roger plays aggressively, he should win. However, if both are a little wishy-washy, Murray should win. And I am not sure Roger will stay aggressive if Murray plays a passive game.

  • Barrymiz

    Why didn’t you analyze what Fed has to do to beat Andy?

  • Susan Lawson56

    Like your comments but please get some MARKERS that work!!!

  • http://www.facebook.com/ken.trock.581 Ken Trock

    Yup, until Murray proves he can break through you’ve got to go with fed.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_A3SFO36RUVWTD43Z2X4SKVFKFQ donspiegel

    I agree with your analysis.  Fed in 4 sets.  Murray will disappoint his constituency.  I don’t think he can keep his cool if he loses the first set.

  • Rscheffler

    I agree that Fed will win the match, but not at a run away style.  The crowd
    will overwhelmingly back Andy, with many loyal fans support the favorite
    Roger. Hopefully no injuries will determine the outcome.

  • Michaellouispizzo

    Good stuff as always. I truly believe Roger will win. The mental advantage is a bonus. Also, I see Roger as having a huge advantage in the Been There, Done that experience

  • Megheadley

    Love listening to your takes!! I agree and think Fed will win in 4..possibly 5 if his serve is slow to start. but he is a strong finisher. Thanks!

  • Rich

    Well done Will. Roger’s focus and intensity will be the difference in the match. Straight sets as Andy unravels. Maybe in the 2014 or 2015 Murray will ascend.

  • Rich

    Well done Will. Roger’s focus and intensity will be the difference in the match. Straight sets as Andy unravels. Maybe in the 2014 or 2015 Murray will ascend.

  • Dsieser

    Another point that hasn’t been made here, is that they’ve not played on grass.  RF seems to be in his element.  Faster surfaces seem to favor him these days.  Even the blue clay in Madrid was very kind to him due to its quickness.  

  • Ram

    Thanks for the excellent take on the match, yes, I really agree , the onus is on Andy, however he does have a big positive, the crowd factor and how they will really be behind him. Although it probably might not bother Roger that much, it will definitely amp Andy up to take his mental game to the next level.

  • Chuck

    Nice job :-)   I agree with your prediction, but OTOH, there is no guarantee that Fed will come out firing on all cylinders.  

  • Anthonysouthward

    I feel Fed will win, more experience at this level.
    I feel Murray needs to slow the tempo of the match, Fed was able to bully Djok to playing at 30 mins sets.
    I wonder if Lendl will advise Murray to hit any short balls directly at Fed at the net.

  • Samraja7

    Will,
    Nice work, thoughtful and insightful.
    The crowd factor, I think may play the opposite effect on Andy who unlike Lendle is not able to block it out. National pride is riding high in London, Olympic fever.
    Roger is not used to being a underdog. Hope everyone behaves, It not a football match!
     

  • Tennisblood

    Hey Will, your analysis boarders the sort of obvious and trivial.  Going after Fed’s BH is the obvious strategy for anyone.  I agree that a lot depends on Murray’s mental toughness and consistent spirit of a battle.  He must go into the final like a soldier goes into a war, with “no prisioners” attitude.  I also think he must stay w/ Fed and even if he loses the first set, come back and win the second; he has an excellent chance in a 5 set match.  In my opinion, Murray has the best chance now to win his first major.  Too bad Djoko simply gave up on hist batlle with Fed in the semis.  Fed will be tested tomorrow and

  • Lita Quetnick

    I wanted you to say something about Fed’ he has been playing so well and was not playing like he is now in some earlier matches even though he has won a lot since the US Open last year.  Good comments on Murray and would have like a bit more balance with comments on Roger.

  • Moss Ira

    No difference in strategy if you are advising Djokevic or Murray and Murray doesn’t do anything better then Nolo, So If Fed plays to form, he wins.

  • LC

    get some new markers

  • Iv4nh03

    Murray doesn’t have the necessary mental strength. He has proven that before. Federer wins in straight sets and probably more than one break in each one.

  • Rich

    Will? Fascinating opinion well informed  obviously you are a good student of the game. What you did omit to say is that I think Andy has beaten Roger something like three times. More importantly Andy although still prone to tantrum is MUCH MUCH! improved at holding his temper. He even said in an interview he appreciates the importance of not dwelling on a bad miss or the shot that was a centimeter out. In short he has learned to move on. His focus has changed Will, he is less easily ruffled now his coach must see himself in Andy because without question Ivan Lendl has spun some magic with Andy Murray. Not to take away from Andy that unwritten savoie faire of real life experience in close matches is guiding Andy’s noticeable improvement also. I agree I believe Roger will prevail simply through ample more experience in tight matches BUT! If Andy Murray can just stop beating himself up as he did with Jo wilfred Tsonga it’s Andy’s match he has the legs and the fire in his gut that Roger finds harder to muster these days. Roger in FIVE tight ones! :-) A pleasure as always Will very thought provoking thank you!

  • Brian

    I simply don’t believe Andy is ready.  Roger is going to hold serve readily making a lot of 1st serve points.  Roger will capitalize on the couple break opportunities that emerge.  Once down 2 sets, Andy will collapse
    Federer wins: 4 3 1, its over quickly.

  • Sean Carr

    Murray is handling his emotions better than I have seen him in the past, which is his achilles heel. Roger’s playing great BUT winning slams are harder when your torwards the end of your career (and Roger will def be feeling it more than in the past since he hasn’t won a slam in almost 3years)

    If the ROOF IS CLOSED causing the ball to travel faster and bounce lower to Roger’s BH Roger probaly wins easliy

    BTW how many of you Federer fans out there (with Paul Annacone topping the list) are thanking your luck stars he’s not playing Nadal tomorrow?

  • Jean

    I think that if Murray play well on defense, put e returning all balls and Fed’s atack, he will have a lot of chances do win. In mental game, Fed is much better but he get tired fast and don’t like 5 set games. Murray have to return the ball and make Fed run a lot, maybe he gets the title and go to the Champions Dinner!

  • Newton Harband

    Murray can’t allow Fed to dictate the point—if he stays back and “dukes” it out with Fed., he’ll lose. He has to be imaginative—some net play, some lobs, drop shots,etc. I like your point about working on Fed’s BH—Fed often runs around it and that opens up the court for a killing shot if Murray can do it. I’m rooting for him and hope that he keeps his cool.
    Prediction: Murray in 5 with the last set going to a tie-breaker.
         Newt Harband

  • Skoster_5

    Excellent analysis, Will!  One Federer attribute which should be considered is his versatility.  He commands a greater scope of possible games than Murray, so I think he may come up with an answer for the backhand emphasis strategy.  One that might catch Murray’s attention would be for Fed to slice that inevitable backhand low down the line, so that Murray’s outstanding forehand on the run is a little less outstanding, and, depending on the quality of the shot, either attack toward the net, or position for the cross court. Fed is sufficiently flexible that he could vary responses, but if he were to get this going, he could then add to the initial gambit by hitting backhands occasionally behind Murray. These are a few of the ways Fed could use his SWOT analysis of Murray and his threats to his own advantage…  

  • Pamela

    Yes Andy should go to Feds Backhand but All Players go to Feds backhand!!
    The height of the moment will get to Andy!! See if Andy Jaw is Going you know Andy is Nervous!!!
    GO FED!!! Back to Number ONE!! The tennis world would rather have Roger be Number ONE!! This is Fed’s surface over Andy … I like Andy but when it comes to Roger!! Roger is my fav tennis player watching him in person is awesome like no one else!! No other player makes it look so easy to play the game!!
    Fed Express all the way!! Take number one away from Joke!!

  • Allen

    I like the influence Lendl is having on Murray and it will ultimately pay dividends but not this time. Federer was at his majestic best against Djokovic and I haven’t seen him play better. I used to think McEnroe was the best natural player I had ever seen but for longevity at the very top of the game Roger Federer is the best.

  • DCUK

    If Will is right then it maybe a chicken and egg situation for Andy.
    So he needs to win the first set before he can really assert himself? 
    Yet if he does then he has already asserted himself. 
    I hope for his sake that he doesn’t go into melt down that’s all at least that way he will play his best tennis. I agree with Allen that Federer is the best but but that doesn’t always win him the match and tennis is full of surprises.

  • Janice

    Once again, right on, Will.  My sentiments exactly.  I think my boy Fed will have the mental edge as well as the better serve.  I also think he really wants to do this for his daughters.

  • Williamnealy

    No tiebreakers in Wimbledon 5th set! Gonna be some big time drama today!

  • Grant

    Federer in 4 sets is my prediction as well. The serve is Federer’s advantage as well as keeping the points short and aggressive. No long rally’s.
    Looking forward to a great mental battle with Federer winning his 7th Wimbledon title and regaining his No. 1 position in the world. 

  • Charlie

    Hi Wil, firstly it was great to meet up with you at Wimbledon and have a good chat! I was at the game on Friday and as I mentioned to you was lucky to be with the “top”people at The All England Club”. We all felt that Andy handled the pressure very well, especially when he managed to win the 4th set . In a way the real pressure on him was to actually get to the final, being the queens jubilee and London Olympics etc, the country wanted him to get to the final almost as a symbolic statement. Andy will enjoy today’s match but I don’t think he will win, the way Roger is striking the ball it’s hard to imagine Andy winning 3 sets? We all loved the men’s doubles victory, a wild card pair who never played together and beat the best in the world, wow, what a win!!! Enjoy the final , keep in touch, cheers, Charlie

  • Nikolausuw

    Will, good analysis, but it was a little distracting when you kept rotating the tiny racquets to show backhand or forehand but had them backwards for a right-handed player

  • Swanjame

    I think the Lendl Factor will be a substantial influence on this match.  Murray in five sets.

    Jim

  • Ray

    Roger.  I’m not sure Federer and Nadal were even born on this planet!

  • Steve

    Roger must serve well and keep the forehand errors down. If he swings freely on the forehand side early on I think (and hope) he wins … and I’m British.
    Win or loose, I think this is Lendl’s last day in the Murray camp.   

  • Ben

    i think Murray needs to play the mental game on Feds and almost expect Feds to win the first.  If Murray can go for it, draw him to the net and pull off a few outlandish passing shots, even if he loses the first set he’s put a seed of doubt into Feds.  He then needs to keep going strong but within himself in the second set and see if Fed starts to hesitate.  This is what Nadal does so well against him, he makes Fed doubt his own game.

  • Mbaldridge

    Great video Will and thanks for laying it out so clearly.

    Not sure just how well Roger has been serving.

    Hey I’m British – so I’ll say it’s 50/50 going in – most folk though saying 75/25 in Fed’s favour.

    I’ll be watching.

  • http://twitter.com/ajverhulst Arthur Verhulst

    They’re not racquets, they represent players holding a racquet. Therefore Will held them correctly.

  • http://twitter.com/ajverhulst Arthur Verhulst

    They’re not racquets, they represent players holding a racquet. Therefore Will held them correctly.

  • Fernando

    Good prediction, missing was going to the net, key on grass

  • http://twitter.com/ajverhulst Arthur Verhulst

    Thanx for your analysis Will, I agree with you. But you only talk about what Murray has te do to win… ;-)

  • http://twitter.com/ajverhulst Arthur Verhulst

    Thanx for your analysis Will, I agree with you. But you only talk about what Murray has te do to win… ;-)

  • Gren

    Don’t believe Murray has the game to beat Fed.  Even when he played at the very top of his game (especially in the last set) against Fed at the Aussie open in 2010, Fed had too much for him.  Just don’t think Murray has enough power to rush Fed into making mistakes – Murray pounding Fed’s backhand isn’t in the same league as Nadal doing this – Murray’s backhands seem to fall in Fed’s hitting zone and without sufficient pace to cramp his one hander.  I’m going for Fed in 3.

  • Brunocoutant

    I agree Fed in 4 sets. Murray is weak or far lesser strong than Fed on the mental side. His bachkand is great especially from the baseline but he stays too much on the baseline and does not build on his play to finish off a point as Fed does. It will be tensed anyhow! So any strawberry and cream at home? Or a few pints of ale? I hope for a great match. Either way it will be an historic victory.

  • photonic

    I think this will be much tighter than most people think. Remember Murray has a winning record over Fed (8-7) – his game stacks better against Fed than against Nadal or Nole. And Murray’s game has clearly improved over the last couple of years – technically and mentally. Fed played well against Nole, but Nole was far from at his best, while Murray never looked under threat from Tsonga. In favour of Fed are the surface and, most of all, the occasion.
    I think it will come down to who can get closer to their A game, and how long the game lasts – longer favours Murray’s fitness. Could be a great game – I’m going Murray in 5.

  • Milw Slim

    why would anyone draw Fed to the net on grass????????????????? And Murray doesn’t have Rafa’s Passing shots

  • The Fat Afro

    The thing is, Federer is far from his best putting into account his age, fitness, and mentality. You have to put in the fact that Federer has fought extremely hard the last few rounds unlike Murray who has won so quite comfortably. Of course, Federer is still capable of playing at a high skill cap despite his age and fitness.

    In my opinion, this match can easily go both ways. Andy Murray can compete at the high level that the top 3 play at, maybe even better. It all depends on their mental level and their natural state that day. If both players play at 50-50, and both end up playing extremely well, I would have to give the slight edge to Murray after watching their latest performance. Steamrolling matters, depends on who gets into the momentum first though.

    This will be an epic match, one that will change history. Hope it’ll be a good one!

  • Doodypops

    I am thinking Federer in four.  Despite the emphasis here on what Murray needs to do, the match is largely on Federer’s raquet.  Murray’s best hope is that Federer gets moody and looses focus.

  • Jim

    I think your analysis is probably the best of any I have seen.  You do a great job not only with the X’s and O’s but also with the mental aspect.

  • kyle

    I think this will be a 3 set blowout and Murray, typically, will have some sort of excuse as he so often does

  • Vvtennis

    Fedever in 3. Murray will be mush emotionally..

  • Guest

    Rude…

  • Cassiocsantos

    I think you are probably right about Federer winning this match. If he serves as well as he did against Djokovic and stay confident he will take control of the match.

  • Anonymous

    Great analysis, Will.

    Murray just needs to keep on believing, as a Brit I am routing for Murray and he has come so far behaviour-wise with Lendl and consequently his tennis has improved.  However, everyone loves Federer; so I won’t be too upset if Roger wins.

    Enjoy the match, everyone :-)

  • Mario Suárez

    I think Federer will keep it short and aggressive. Murray doesn´t have strong shots at this level; he usually needs long rallies to get into a winning position, but that will be tough against a guy that will not worry much about his game -or about protecting his backhand as you suggest. You indicated it clearly: Federer is strong and comfortable in this kinda moments. THE GAME was on Friday, and he showed he’s in the zone.
    If Murray is half as good as Federer at varying the game and keeping it short without losing focus (because that implies unforced errors that can get to you), we can expect a good match. Winning is a state of mind. Winning here is about taking it to the edge.

  • Hastings

     As an anglophile, I won’t be too disappointed if Murray wins, but as a Federer fan, I’m as usual pulling for Roger.  I only wish Murray had lost in the semifinal to Ferrer (I greatly admire Ferrer, too).  That way, Britain would not have had such a bitter pill to swallow, and Ferrer would have had his shot, which he certainly deserves.  He’d be certain to lose to Roger, albeit heroically.

    I notice that Will didn’t get into how Roger will beat Murray, but I assume it’s just by being Roger.

    I appreciate the analysis, Will.  Davidson should be proud of you.  I hope I’m still in North Carolina when you get your honorary doctorate!

  • greg

    Murray is guna win! Federer has no chance :)

  • Denscrut

    I think Andy will win.The difference this time is that he has had the benefit of Lendl as a coach.  Andy will do what Lendl never did and win the big one on grass.  Andy is younger and fitter than Roger and this will be a factor though it will hardly show.  The Poms will be celebrating, they have had to wait a long time but it is now their turn. 
    Dennis

  • Pat

    Good analysis and we will see who will win.  Good luck Federer!

  • Harlan

    This match is HUGE. Olympic year in London, first male Brit in Wimbledon final in eons, Fed’s possible seventh title at the big “W”…and then to become number one again, as he had hoped and predicted..Sentimental favorite? Gotta be Murray. Likely winner? Federer. Lendl could never win at Wimbledon, but now his charge is there to do it for him. Lots of drama and intrigue. Even tho I like Fed alot, I’d love to see Murray play his A game, handle the pressure well, and finally realize a major breakthrough. 

  • jeff

    Thanks for the take, and all your tips.
    You do need to spring for new markers.

  • http://www.facebook.com/brett.attebery.9 Brett Attebery

    Too much pressure on Murray I think. It will be tough for him to focus on the X’s and O’s. Federer beat up on Novak pretty easily so think he is supremely confident. Federer in straight sets.

  • http://www.facebook.com/brett.attebery.9 Brett Attebery

    Too much pressure on Murray I think. It will be tough for him to focus on the X’s and O’s. Federer beat up on Novak pretty easily so think he is supremely confident. Federer in straight sets.

  • Steven0531

    Good comments! Can’t wait to see Roger be number 1 in the world again and calm the rest of commentators down on who is the Best Ever!!!!!

  • Noushin_kananian

    Many thanks for your professional analysis. I am sure Andy will be the Champion.

  • Nikolausuw

    If they represent players then they might as well be up or down and he wouldn’t be rotating them as he talks about backhands and forehands. As he goes from talking about Federer’s forehand to talking about his backhand he rotates the racquet head.

  • Yfikre

    Very good analysis.  While it would be nice for all of us watching to see Murray win, I am inclined to go along with your prediction that Roger will win it in 4 sets.

  • Drounsville

    Love that Roger- I knew he could do it- a real champion!!
     

  • Rich

    Great call Will :-) … it has been so long since Fed dominated in movement and genius shot making like that it was difficult to remember just how many facets to his game. I’m out of superlatives on the man but Roger went for it like I have not seen in a long time (3 years+)  I definitely agree with Roger, Andy will win a major. In a relatively smaller way he has a monkey off his back he got to the Wimbeldon final and he can only take that away as a powerful positive. Well deserved Andy great job you are buidling a solid foundation. 

    One had to lose happy for both players great final. Fed’s instinctive and smart play coupled with that composure and what about his BH???… just boggles what a daunting combination, formidable offense, devastating defense with equal poise throughout. Roger was very aware of the crowd favouring Andy yet Roger never lost sight of his goal. R.F. Best player to ever walk on a tennis court bar none. IMHO

  • Dean

    Arthur’s right actually, they are players holding racquets, where the racquets are the stick and the players are the ball. He explains that in every video he uses the whiteboard with.

  • Chuck

    Excellent job FYB! Very good take on the match and pretty much spot on. 
    Only area I had issue with is how you just assumed that any pro getting inside
    the BL to a winning position will win most of those points. My charting shows this is the critical area in big matches and that it’s the one who executes best from this area who will win and often the loser is not able to do well from this area. Being better and winning more points from this area is key…even for the Pros.

  • Johan

    Good analysis and a great call Will!

    I watched your video after the match, and the Swedish TV commentators Jonas Bjorkman, Thomas Johansson and Fredrik Rosengren had a similar analysis.

    During the rain break they stated what they wanted each player to do. They wanted Murray to be more aggressive and dare to play his backhand straight down the line to open up the court. They wanted Federer also to be more aggressive and use his backhand slice towards Murrays forehand corner.

    Look what happened! Federer came out more aggressive and used his fantastic backhand slice towards Murray’s forehand corner, and Murray over-hit his forehand cross several times. A really great match with some interesting tactic.

  • Gerat52

    Excellent analysis Will I am inclined with your prediction great Job.

  • kevinZ

    Same analysis as on ESPN! Good job. Fed wins in 4 sets but loses the first.

  • kevinZ

    Same analysis as on ESPN! Good job. Fed wins in 4 sets but loses the first.

  • Michael

    Andy did both things, he handled the moment and he stayed aggressive.  It did not matter because Fed played lights out.  Fed’s backhand has definitely improved, the shot is bigger and his slice is great for the change of pace.  I wonder how many are going to be still calling for Roger to retire after watching this performance.  Murray has nothing to be ashamed of, his play was very strong.
    Michael

  • MarkyMark

    Great assessment again. Only thing wrong was Fed lost first set, but still won in four. Murray continued to be aggressive but Fed’s magic in sets 3 and 4 were the difference!

  • http://www.fuzzyyellowballs.com/ Will Hamilton

    Yep I agree – Murray played very well.  Maybe you could say he took his foot off the gas a little bit toward the end (played more defensively) but frankly Federer just won the thing.  Played lights out.

  • Dude

    It kind of sounds like you’re rooting for Murray, but I thought you were a Federer fan. Nice prediction by the way, it was a great match.
     

  • Dre23222

    I wish someone can give me some analysis on having a good tennis game.

  • http://twitter.com/red00baron Gerald Weber

    Andy Murray may never win a Grand Slam. He lost his footing so many times it was laughable.  If someone wants to win a Slam they better have better footwork than Murray’s led boots on the court.

  • Olda

    quite a good analysis! I think that MMurray had momentum till 5-4 30-30 in 2. set. The 2. half of the 2. set Roger really stared to struggle with his groundstokes (many unforced errs. and he really started not to swing freely through the ball … and Murray was just step by step using his growing confidence and increasing the pace on his strokes and agressivness). But at the big points at the end of the 2.set Roges unbelievable genius was again full visible. As he smelled the minimal weeknes of Andy and is chance to get the set he just played 2 unbelievable points with no fear. I think that was the match. If Andy would have served it out till tie break, I bet he would win the set. Fed was missing at his last serve game often by half meter or more.) I think after having lost the 2. set where Andy was all in all better player. It was too hard to regroup and Roger knew it and played like a new person. After roof was closed (so next reason to swing freelier) in my oppinion the match was decided. Decided doesn´t mean that it was given to Fed without fight, but just Fed was surfing on the wave of his momentum till the end. Last set it looked like Andy starts to feel his body hurting and get visibly more frustrated and unpatient in his rallies. But all in all in my oppinion his best performance in a slam final.

  • Marie

    Excellent foresight, Will. Good analysis. Congratulations and thanks for all this material.

  • Katy

    Your take was almost 100% correct, except for the lst set.  

  • Darrell

    well you nailed except who won the 1st set
    darrell

  • chris

    Hi Will. You missed the closing of the roof. I think it was vital, if Murray had a chance of winning, that the roof stayed open adding outdoor conditions. We all know Federer is an indoor specialist.

  • chris

    One other thing. You pointed out Murray had to play down the line to open up the court to get fed running on his backhand side. He didn’t take those risks at important times of the match, aka, end of 2nd set. Too many backhand exchanges.
    Well analysed Will. Murray had fed up against the ropes in the first 2 sets, but  fed landed 2 knockout blows to decide the match.

  • http://www.facebook.com/michaelbernsteinaz Michael Bernstein

    Hey Will,

    Liked your preview, pretty much saw at just like you did.  Glad to see that I was wrong in that whoever took that first set would be the one holding the hardware…I didn’t expect to see Roger be the one coming out so tight as he did, making all those easy unforced errors.  Glad to see he was able to pull up his level  to what we all come to expect of him and win the next three sets handily.  

  • Gdyna100

    :-) four sets and first is the key , it is now history- I still can not understand why Murry neglects depth of bachand raley
     

  • OilyFish56

    Hey will i noticed something during the wimbledon final but forgot to leave a comment after it finished if you look at the court on the day of the final when its nearly fully worn out you’ll see the right handed backhand side is a lot more worn out than the forehand side so something must be going on i know roger federer uses this tactic but it cant be just him maybe if possible you could go into detail with this

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